The Dow’s 28.5% advance during the year after the election ranks as one of the best ever.
Current technical conditions suggest that the bullish trend in equities could continue into 2018, and potential dips may present buying opportunities.
We continue to closely monitor fundamentals, particularly policy developments out of Washington, as we believe they will be a necessary component for stock market gains in 2018
Last week marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump’s Election Day victory. The period since the president was elected has been one of the best ever for U.S. stock markets.
The 28.5% rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) one year after the election ranks 4 out of 31 overall among one-year post-election rallies for U.S. presidents since the inception of the Dow in 1896 [Figure 1] and is one of the best performances since World War II (WWII).
The best? President Coolidge during the Roaring Twenties. The worst? Woodrow Wilson’s second term during WWI.
It has been a great year for stocks since President Trump’s election victory, one that ranks up there with like periods over the past 120 years spanning 31 different elections. Gains can be attributed to a number of factors, some policy related and some not.
But following up the strong year one with a good year two will be a tougher task.
While the technical conditions look good, we continue to closely monitor fundamentals, particularly policy developments out of Washington and geopolitical risks overseas.
We expect to see potential gains in the coming year, but policy achievements will likely be required.
We have seen some progress. In other areas we would like to see more. We have a little bit of time left in Trump’s first year, but the movement certainly started the day he was elected.
All in all do you think the first year of Trump’s presidency has been a success?